Can Job Creation Help South Asia to Escape Global Economic Crisis?

Can Job Creation Help South Asia to Escape Global Economic Crisis?

Can Job Creation Help South Asia to Escape Global Economic Crisis?

JOBS, JOBS, AND JOBS

October 28, 2009 - In South Asia more than 150 million people are expected to enter the prime working age population over the next decade. Creating jobs for them will contribute to growth, equity, and peace in the region.

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South Asia's recent rapid growth must be more inclusive to address the dichotomy of the growing gap between leading and lagging regions.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

South Asia has recently attracted global attention for its rapid growth. “Notwithstanding this impressive progress, South Asia remains home to a large number of poor,” saidEliana A. Cardoso, Chief Economist for the South Asia Region, World Bank. “Their welfare has become more precarious in this global economic crisis. The poor countries have little economic cushion to protect vulnerable populations from this crisis, which was followed closely on the heels of a global spike in food prices.

According to a recent World Bank report, Accelerating Growth and Job Creation in South Asia, timely and relevant in the context of the ongoing global crisis, there is a broad consensus that South Asia must continue to grow rapidly and possibly faster to eradicate poverty more comprehensively than in the past. “There is also an emerging consensus that this growth must be more inclusive to address the dichotomy of the growing gap between leading and lagging regions,” said Cardoso.

SOUTH ASIA NEEDS TO GROW ON MULTIPLE FRONTS

Rural markets and lagging regions have huge untapped potential. It has increased with expanding role of the services sector. Combined with an improved role of unorganized and organized manufacturing and services has eroded steadily the overall share of agriculture incomes in rural areas.

Rural households today depend on more than one source for their incomes. Temporary rural to urban migration has increased incomes, which otherwise depended on agriculture. Other individuals within the household have increasingly involved in home-based work. This diversification helps stabilize household purchases.

HOW TO GROW?

Sustaining high growth rates is not easy. “Growth results from complex interactions between policies, institutions, geography, and leadership. The question is can South Asia achieve both high and inclusive growth?” said Cardoso.

The factors that can contribute to high and inclusive growth are labor mobility, more jobs, increased productivity, skills and education, and resolution of internal conflict. Inclusive growth is not about balanced growth but shared opportunities. Spatial disparities in growth are inevitable when growth accelerates and countries make the transition from being an agricultural to an industrialized economy.

HOW TO CREATE JOBS?

The key asset of South Asia is its people. “South Asia has a young population and the lowest female participation rate in the labor force. The demographic dividend will result in more workers entering the labor force in the future,” said Cardoso. Hence, the region must exploit the unparalleled advantage of demographic dividend that could structurally transform South Asia economically and socially. The structural transformation – the shift of capital and labor away from low-productivity (traditional agriculture) and into high-productive sectors (modern agriculture, manufacturing, and services) – is needed to accelerate growth and create jobs. Labor supply growth is 2.3% per annum in South Asia, above the global average of 1.8%. The increased labor force can contribute to additional growth.

Can Job Creation Help South Asia to Escape Global Economic Crisis?

GROWTH AND EQUITY

Job creation is good for growth and good for equity. “South Asia’s young demographics suggest that its labor force is growing faster than its population, and millions of new entrants will not be able to finds jobs,” said Ejaz Ghani, Economic Advisor for the South Asia Region, World Bank. More than 150 million people are expected enter the prime working age population over the next decade. “Creating jobs for them will contribute to growth, equity, and peace in the region.”

MORE PRODUCTIVE JOBS

A key challenge facing the region is whether it can create enough good jobs to convert this large population into a productive asset. The region with weak infrastructure has also constrained the expansion of the manufacturing sector, thereby adversely affecting both growth and employment creation.

WHAT WILL CREATE MORE PRODUCTIVE JOBS?

First, rapid growth is essential to create more and better jobs.

Second, restrictive labor laws need to be reformed to remove barriers to creating jobs in the formal sector. Labor market reforms should be accompanied by improved social protection.

Third, for South Asia to accelerate growth and create good jobs, it will require much better training and education to produce more skilled labor.

HOW HAS SOUTH ASIA FARED IN CREATING JOBS?

In terms of numbers, South Asia is one of the fastest job creators in the world,” saidGhani. The largest job creation in South Asia is in the services sector, but the manufacturing sector is also showing progress. South Asia now needs to generate non-agricultural jobs in lagging regions of South Asia, where 500 million people live.

The key link between growth and inclusiveness is creation of good jobs," said Ghani. South Asia is already undergoing a major structural transformation based on rapid growth of services and manufacturing. The GDP share of agriculture is shrinking fast. As the agriculture sector modernizes, and farmers move up the value chain, and make better use of retail networks, storage facilities, and transportation facilities from the fields to the markets, more jobs are likely to migrate from agriculture to other sectors. This trend is likely to continue in the future, although the growth rates in both manufacturing and agriculture could be accelerated.

EAST ASIA OF 1970S AND 1980S

The recent history of South Asia raises hope for the region. Growth has been rapid, and some parts of the region are beginning to resemble the economies of East Asia of the 1970s," said Ghani. Yet this growth has not had a matching impact on employment, so the incidence of poverty remains large and, despite some small downward movement in recent times, at record levels by global standards. “This also means that the associated with poverty, such as low literacy rates, malnutrition, and poor working conditions, persist.”

It is therefore important for the countries to turn their attention to spreading the benefits of growth to larger segments of the population. While the initial impulse is likely to result in government programs and subsidies, the region has to rely on private industry to create jobs.

On the other hand the restrictive labor laws have reduced employment prospects in organized manufacturing but also constrained its growth by adversely affecting investment and productivity.


sOURCE--http://www.worldbank.org.in/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/INDIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22366748~menuPK:295589~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:295584,00.html

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“Sach Ka Saamna”

Our nation has given us great souls like Gautam Buddha, Raja Harishchandra, Mahatma Gandhi, Swami Vivekananda and many more. With “Satyameve Jayate” (Truth Alone Triumphs) as the national motto of our country, we all have a great faith in truth. But, it is also a well known fact that a lie for a good reason is far better than truth which hurts. Now, the question arises that what actually Truth is? For me, it is the voice which comes from your inner self. As, different senses are involved in developing human mind with conditions different for every human being, it may occur that a truth for someone may be untruth for another.

Now-a-days a reality television show by Star Plus named “Sach Ka Saamna” is making buzz all over the country. The discussion about this show is going on everywhere. A petition to in the Delhi High court was filled to have this show banned. But, the court rejected the plea saying that “moral policing” was not its job. A division bench of Chief justice A P Shah and Justice Manmohan quoted that “In this land of Gandhi, it appears that nobody follows Gandhi… Follow the Gandhian principle of ‘see no evil’. Why do you not simply switch off the TV?” They further added that “We have very good advice for you. You have got two judges sitting here who do not watch TV at all. It will certainly help.”

Actually, the debate started with Samajwadi Party’s MP Kamal Akhtar raised the question about the show in the Rajya Sabha. He said that ‘obscene questions’ are asked on the show based on personal lives. He further said that the show is against our “Indian Culture”. His claim was also supported by other MP’s of Samajwadi party and Bhartiya Janta Party. So, the question which arises is that, can a truth be harmful for anyone? There may be different opinions on this issue. But, what I feel is that there are other more important issues of our society than this, which remains orphaned and are not raised by anyone in our country. I believe that those MP’s who raise their voice against such petty affairs as television shows should act on important issues other than just weeping for these television shows. They are sent there by the citizens to raise the issues affecting their daily life. Be it employment, infrastructure development, education, health, security, etc: certainly not to police our television viewing.

However, a doubt also arises on the truth shown on the television show; the truth that is convicted only to raise money. Furthermore, who gives the guarantee that the truth shown on the show is actually true? The management of the show defends it with the polygraphic tests done on the contestant before the final shooting of the programme. But then, it is also a well known fact that these tests are not infallible and contains errors. According to 2003 National Academy of science (NAS) report, polygraphic analyses are “Unreliable, Unscientific and Biased”.

So the bottom line is that our MP’s and media had given so much importance to an issue which is insignificant enough when we consider the bigger issues that our country is suffering from every moment. After all, it is an entertainment based show, not requiring such seriousness. So, just enjoy it or turn off your television sets if it hurts your moral sentiments!!



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Is Rahul Gandhi prime minister material?

He’s been called the “Quiet Revolutionary“. And India’s prime minister-in-waiting. But does Rahul Gandhi, a virtual novice in the rough and tumble of Indian politics, have what it takes for the country’s top job?

He didn’t exactly set the house on fire during his first five years in parliament. And until this election, Rahul’s only USP was that he belonged to India’s first family, the Nehru-Gandhi family which has given the country three prime ministers.

He’s only 39, and has no experience with complex subjects such as Pakistan or the economy.

But after the recent election, Rahul has emerged as a savvy politician, a grassroots activist with a finger on the pulse of the real India.

His strategy of not allying with any of the regional parties in northern India despite pressure from party officials paid off big time.

The Congress party’s decision to go it alone in northern India helped it more than double its seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Initially, based just on his political strategy for this election, there was much speculation over whether he would join the cabinet, and if he did what portfolio he’d get.

Eventually, Rahul wasn’t a part of the cabinet, but he’s still seen as the face of the Congress party from now on — and perhaps prime minister at some point in the future.

But isn’t there a danger he could be sidelined if he isn’t part of the federal cabinet?

Sure, he has age on his side and he can learn over the next five years. Besides, like his father, Rajiv, he appeals to millions of young voters in India.

But he’s not alone in that sense. He is part of a new generation of young parliamentarians like Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia who have a completely new perspective on politics.

So the question many in India are asking is: could Rahul Gandhi be overshadowed by other younger politicians who are in the cabinet?


http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2009/07/01/is-rahul-gandhi-prime-minister-material/

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Democracy vs Communism: Lessons from history

In the social sciences, theories won't get us very far. Instead, we should look at the economic systems, e.g., USSR, CPR, Egypt, Great Britain, and the thousands of small communist and anarchist utopias around the world throughout history.

There we will find that all communist economies eventually floundered because of lack of monetary incentives. They reduced the lowest levels of poverty, but could not advance the general material welfare. Internal violence was reduced, but not necessarily international violence. The only societies that had successful communist economies were primitive native tribes, e.g., American Indians, where most goods were owned by the tribe and personal possessions were few. However, we know what happened to these peoples when confronted by the capitalists!

It is true, democracies, autocracies, dictatorships, etc., are forms of government that have little connection with economic welfare. To understand that subject, we have to look at the economic systems, e.g., capitalism, socialism, communism, etc. Any of the above governments can and have worked with these different economic models with success (and failure). To date, capitalism has shown better results than any other system. However, the current forms of western capitalism are heavily modified by government "rules of the game" that ameliorate the unfavorable side-effects, such as, depressions, excessive inequality, poverty, etc.

Furthermore, feudal, socialist, and communist economies all over the globe, from small utopias (New Harmony, Lanark, Oneida in the U.S.) to colossal nations (Russia), with very few exceptions, have given up on their attempts to establish egalitarian societies because equality and incentive are incompatible.

Where they failed, leftists and fascists removed these liberal governments, but ultimately failed to provide an adequate prescription for per capita income advancement, either by improving technologies or conquering other countries, or both. They are mostly obsolete today. Additionally, all attempts by leftist governments to create classless societies, resulted in merely replacing the capitalist classes with bureaucratic classes, the general population remaining as poor as ever. This was certainly true of the U.S.S.R., and all eastern European countries under the hegemony of the U.S.S.R.

All the richer countries have capitalist economies and most are democratic. In these countries when inequalities generated by capitalism became too great, the exploited and oppressed masses pressured their representatives to pass laws that relieved the poorer segments of the population. Returning to new, revolutionary leftist governments, in the modern world, where would such a government obtain capital and trade to improve the living standards of its people? There are no large leftist governments with such excess money that they can support a poor leftist government until it becomes self-sufficient, a la the then U.S.S.R. vis a vis Cuba.

The rich capitalist countries certainly have no incentive to lend money to leftist governments as a matter of ideology. Best that a new Marxist government can do is redistribute income from the rich to the poor as was done in revolutionary Russia, and Cuba, but then what?

Redistribution benefits the poor at the expense of the rich, but it does not promote increased incomes generally because of the lack of incentives. Therefore, where does it obtain the capital and technology to increase incomes, if the capitalists will not provide it? Inexorably, the lack of incentives under socialism, communism, or any other leftist brand will lead to malaise and poverty, as it did in Russia, eastern Europe, Cuba. There are ample lessons in the 75 years of wars to reach the simple conclusion that democratic capitalist nations are successful, and totalitarian socialist nations are not.

Geography is important in determining whether Nepal has any prospect of becoming richer. Countries that have poor transportation facilities must devote much of the acquired technology to improving it. This was done in the formative years in the U.S. Otherwise, supplies cannot reach producers and products cannot reach customers cheaply enough to be bought by those with modest incomes.

We are talking here, not only of innovative scientists and engineers, the unattainable for Nepal, but technical operators, i.e., "technicians", the people who must know enough math and science to make small decisions involving the operation of increasingly complex machinery.

Whether and how fast a country can modernize itself and become rich, hence, depends not only on geography and culture, but also on the economy, polity, and of course, history of the nations.


http://newsblaze.com/story/20060427224243nnnn.nb/topstory.html

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Do Elections make a difference?

the CNN-Youtube Republican DebateImage via Wikipedia

Sunday Debate

Mr A The present elections in India have been accompanied by a huge media campaign that one must vote and participate in the political process. An urgency of sorts was generated because of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. Citizens turned out to hold candle light marches amidst total disgust with our leaders. A feeling was generated, at least in the media, that people should vote and elect the leaders whom they liked. The question that was asked was: if people don’t vote, do they have the right to protest against their leaders? Yet, voter turnout has not been too inspiring. It would seem that people have gone back to their lives and do not care about voting. From the point of view of majority of voters, they don’t care two hoots for their leaders, perhaps because they know that things will not change, whether or not they vote. That is the background of this debate: do elections make a difference to people? Has the political process left out the aspirations of the people?

Mr B I would say this is not the case. Elections do generate a lot of excitement in the country. People are interested in the political process. Otherwise how do you explain the great reversals in elections: the loss of Indira Gandhi despite her huge popularity? Closer in time, who could have thought that the BJP would be wiped out in the last elections despite being led by a stalwart like Vajpayee? So it is wrong to say that elections do not make a difference. People do see and analyse the policies of their government and are able to vote and seal the fate of leaders who have let them down. This time also it will not be any different. I would say that most people keep watching silently, at least the majority. These people do not speak on television debates but have a strong opinion of their own. If elections do not make a difference, how would you explain the great electoral reversals that we have seen in the past?

Mr C I agree with your point of view, but if you go beyond electoral reversals, you will see why there is voter apathy. Actually there is no choice before the voter. Whether it is BJP, Congress or the Third Front, they all are the same. Whether we choose one or the other, we know that there is no party in India that can tackle the issues confronting the people of India: corruption, caste-based reservations or affordable education and healthcare. Rather than talk about these issues, every party is spewing forth poison against one community or the other. Even the young leaders are no better, as was shown by the Varun Gandhi episode. Parties are talking about the Kandahar episode or the demolition at Ayodhya—unfortunately these are not issues that affect the people. The electoral process in the country has fragmented the population in a way that even the British could not. Can you blame the voter that he is apathetic? Vote or not, he knows that he will have to pay a bribe to get things done from a government office. So I would say that elections in India is a wasteful exercise, because nothing changes for people.

Mr B The problem also is with the fact that we do not know whom to vote for. Since no party is able to get the majority, the scramble for MPs starts after the election. It is usually an ugly spectacle, with small parties offering themselves to the highest bidder. The party that emerges with the majority does not have voter mandate, so actually the vote of the people goes waste. For example, in one of the earlier elections Mr Hegde was able to emerge as the Prime Minister of the country, even though none of us knew his name before the elections. In the last elections, the Congress was able to patch up a majority and pulled out Manmohan Singh as the country’s leader, as if from a magician’s hat, because he was seen as a humble and obsequious to the party president. He was the non-controversial candidate who would not rock the boat by taking decisions on his own, and the arrangement served the party well. The BJP had done the same—it installed Vajpayee because he was the non-controversial, liberal face of the party, but it did not change its colours and was defeated. So I would say that the electoral system is flawed. We don’t know our leaders, we don’t know who will be chosen by the parties when the voting is done, we don’t know the policies that the government will make. So what’s the point of the elections?

Mr D Elections are the backbone of our democracy. Even if the system is flawed, can we say that elections do not make a difference? Look at the countries that do not have elections: they are dictatorships or ruled by armies. Whatever the flaws, I am glad that we are not in that category. We may not have a part to play in selecting the Prime Minister, but we certainly have the power to throw out leaders whom we do not like. That is quite a big thing. We are counted today with great countries like USA, UK and France, because we are all democracies. We have citizen and human rights, unlike people in China and Russia. There is accountability of the elected leaders towards the electorate. We cannot and should not wish it away. Despite all the flaws, elections do serve a very important function.

Mr E I think none of us have any problems with the democratic system in our country. A democratic system is definitely better than any other political system. However, the problem is that the system has become so corrupted that voters are turning away from it. You cannot subscribe to the argument that we deserve the government that we get because we don’t vote. The point is that even if we vote, we cannot remove criminals from politics, we cannot make the government act when we are attacked, we cannot remove the policeman who demands a bribe from us, we cannot even meet our Prime Minister and express our concerns because of his heavy security. What kind of democracy is this?

Mr A I agree with you. Our leaders preach development but encourage people who beat up girls wearing jeans or going to pubs. They play the caste and religion card. So where is the choice? Whether we vote or not, these things are going to stay. That is why we say that elections do not make a difference. Perhaps the answer to this riddle is that the political system should be reformed. No big reforms are needed, just implementation of existing laws. Parties fielding criminals should be banned, parties asking for votes on caste or religion propaganda should also likewise face penalties. Parties should also declare their leaders before the elections and make their position clear in terms of patching up with regional powers before the elections. Without such considerations, you cannot blame the people of India from turning away from the electoral process.

Mr B The voter is quite helpless. All he can do is to hold candle-light marches. The system remains exploitative. Instead of electing leaders who can represent us in Parliament, we are forced to elect leaders who treat their term as an opportunity to enjoy the privileges of power and to amass wealth. You can say that we have the power to throw them out—and we do—but is that the purpose of voting? Somewhere along the line we have forgotten that the purpose of democracy is to elect leaders who can represent our concerns, instead we are forced to vote for regressive people who come out with strange policies like banning English, beating up people for wearing a dress they disapprove of, or declaring that a particular city is for people of a certain State.

Mr C A lot of interesting points came up for discussion today. I think we all agreed that there is apathy among the people and we also know that voting will not change the exploitative system. So, while we are not against the democratic process, all of us feel that if some basic laws are implemented, people will be more willing to take part in the political process. The voice of the people has been lost in the electoral din. It is time it is recovered, to save our democracy. We want to be a vibrant, modern country, but our leaders are holding us back by talking about caste, region and religion. If we can eliminate these three non-issues from the political life and are able to get a leader who can address the real issues of the people, I am sure that people will respond to him. Unfortunately, for the past many years we have not had even one leader who could rise above narrow electoral gains to address the issues affecting people. That is why people feel that elections do not make a difference. I just hope that some leader realizes this in the future and puts us on the path to growth, as also above all narrow non-issues.

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Lecture by Prof. Yogendra Kumar Alagh on the subject of “Security and Governance in a liberalizing economy”(very long post but its concrete:))

special offerImage by B. Sandman via Flickr

I am really grateful to the BPR&D for inviting me to deliver Dr. Anand Swaroop
Gupta Memorial Lecture. Since the Police Commission Report and before it, the Indian
Police have had traditional thinking policemen who have made seminal contributions to
the difficult task of maintaining security in a large and a very fractious open democracy
whereas, the Hon’ble Patil knows, permanent protest is a way of life, as the ads of the
incredible India Campaign says everyday. The media is correctly exacting in a
democracy and largely reporting failures to keep all of us on our toes. However, the salt
of the earth are those who just do their jobs well and have the satisfaction of doing it.
While remaining un-surge as Vice chancellor of the Nehru University, I remember Mr
Rao, a senior Police Officer of the Delhi Police, approached me for cajoling forcing a
crowd agitating student not to linch two eve teasers. A large force was kept outside the
North Gate of the Campus, just in case we need. He wrote a case to local authority on
police working together and lifting me, an admirer of crowd control, of cases not reported
in the Press.
Thanking you for inviting me on an occasion to honour policeman like Dr. A S
Gupta.
India is a large federal democracy and is in a questioning mode on government
structures. Many of our established institutions are being questioned. The notion which
the Press sometimes carries that all our problems can be traced back to political
governance and civil service mechanism, I believe, is incorrect. Change has been rapid,
expectations are high, technological and economic compulsions are severe and system
performance of an incremental kind, seems unacceptable. The country use to experience
the freedom movement and the post-Independence decades with idealistic goals is not
coming fully to grips with the operational and functional aspects of coalition
governments and decentralized institutions. In one’s work, dominating trends in relations
to the governance can be seen. Somewhat tentatively I would propose:
There will be a much greater emphasis on the rights of individuals in groups including
participatory forms of decision making. This will demand greater fairness and self-
restraint in the use of Government power. There will be a greater demand on
transparency and the right to information.
To assitate withdraws from direct delivery, governance would need to establish a
regulatory function for the functioning of the economic and social sectors. But also it
must lay down the institutional framework, incentive mechanisms and disincentive
mechanisms not under the words nice bouquets but also punishments, which the Police
does for those who do wrong things. So police is important and the Government
structures for civil society institutions to functions like centralized local institutions,
government co-operatives, NGOs and newer mixed forms of smaller organizations. Long
renewable resources will be far more severe. Scarcities of water, land, energy
sustainability concerns will be acute.
There would be much greater demand for protecting vulnerable groups either
historically under-privileged or the new, which will be the victims of globalization and
marketisation. Concerns for human rights and particularly of specific groups such as
women, children, minorities, adivasis, mentally challenged, these would be important.
Modern technology, which will have at our command, will be seen as providing
cutting edge knowledge based solutions to all these scarcities and problems. There will
be greater use of Information Technology, bio-technology, systems networking, new
materials outsourcing and largely to teaching management responses.
And finally I see thoughtful groups seeing security concerns becoming more and
more acute. I was saying this even before September 11. Arising from the socio-
economic and political dicotism when the world is facing and the resulting tensions also
from the more basic issues of food, energy, security, water security and the institutions to
do this.
I wrote a report on the ‘Examination and Training to reforms of the higher Civil
Servants’. Some of the Press people said that I was very critical of the IPS/IAS and the
IFS. Actually, the critical part of the report was written by a Senior Civil Servant.
Quote from the summary of the Report, as released by the UPSC
“Indian Political System at civil service produce some extraordinary/ordinary
women and men. They have been persons of letters of arts of history. They have
conceived and implemented green revolutions, given extraordinary idea to health
education and literacy. They have protected the tribal and the dalit, fashioned
his/her rights and fought for them. They have developed new concepts of finance
scrutiny and audit of public expenditure. They have given impetus to scientific and
correctional research. They have fashioned and followed through nation’s global
agenda. They have followed through its deepest dreams of multi-religious, multi-
ethnic society, as narrated from its freedom struggle by both creatively its
democratic and reconciliatory edifice and fighting those who have been destroyed
by the violence. They have been at the heart of the young democracy, struggle for
fashioning the velvet glove and the mailed fist. There have been men and women in
India at the highest echelons of ruling classes who have been scrupulous on the use
of every paisa of public money whose picture has never been published in the
newspapers at public expenses. They have, however, been the exception and not the
rule and what we have to do is to see to it that they become the Rule that is the
challenge in the next round. Now India is growing fast. Its growth is most stable
and its growth is fast.”
During the last month, both the International Monetary Fund and the
Harvard Economist have said the same thing. In the paper given to the Bureau, I
have given a table which was presented at the G-20 by a group arguing that India
and China should be a part of it of which CGA Canada has shown that India is now
a fourth largest economy in the world. We are no longer fifth or sixth and really the
issues which I am talking about are important. Now the Economic Survey says
growth has become a habit from 1979 which I have been saying a year and as I
have told now the world has accepted it. But if it is becoming a habit, your habit is
to grow up around six percent. In fact in the Eighties, we grew a little faster than in
the nineties. And if we want to make number three, then we should be growing at 7-
8 percent, which is what the Prime Minister and the others have said recently. In a
study which Tariq have done for the Planning Commission and I have done for the
UN, we have showed that if we want to grow from 6 to 8 then today what happens is
that for every rupee that you invest, you produce one third of a rupee and that has
to rise to 40 paise. The first thing is productivity of the investment has to rise. The
second thing is that you have to be a larger part of the world trade and the third is
that you have to save more. Countries like China are saving 10 percent more than
us. And all of this has to do with the Police, with the more functioning system, the
Civil Service and so on. Now first, the Changing Role of the State – the State is not
going to deliver steel or heavy machinery and all, which was set as the objective,
which the young lady said when I was Advisor in the Planning Commission or a
Member. The State in the next round will be a facilitator and an arbitrator and will
be a Champion of Reform and that means a very different Police from the Police of
the Civil Service that we have in the last thirty years. And these are the problems
which I address to myself. The first is the whole question of my lecture in which I
used a Latin phrase translated into English “Who will guard the Guards?” which is
the first issue. I am so happy that the Prime Minister has mentioned and I am sure
the Home Minister is very keenly involved in all of these exercises. Appointment at
the highest level to regulatory bodies to Public Sector Agencies. I can give you one
instance. When I was the Power Minister, my Secretary was the person who
became later on the Principal of the Administrative Staff College of India and Sir as
you know in the last Government he filed the case against the Government for an
incorrect decision on the Chairman of the Central Electricity Regulatory Body.
Because we had laid down very strong requirements because it is in these kinds of
appointments that you can give either right or wrong signals and Sharma had put
down criteria as to what are the kinds of factors that should be there in this
appointment. As soon as the man leaves we had an identifying spectacle of some
very senior people wanting to get that position. I gave him out printed speech the
Act of Parliament where we have put into these conditions that I had to exchange in
the final Ordinance that was not there. So the kinds of issues which have been
talked about right now ‘appointment at the highest level’ is an extremely serious
issue. Together with that you have the whole question of the ‘Recruitment and the
Training of the Civil Service’. Now most of the reform that is being talked about
now by various groups goes back to the Committee that I chaired in the UPSC
about three years ago. A large number of very distinguished people worked both
with the committee as well as outside. The Hon’ble Kalam gave me days of his
work, designed a new testing procedure where the psychological testing procedures
of the Army are adapted to the Civil Service in the Police because it was found that
there was lot of arbitrariness in the existing procedures in terms of relationships
between the results of the written test and the Interview. Those things the UPSC
have already implemented some of them and the others will be implemented. But
the other issue was as we looked ahead we saw all the problems which I talked about
with you, it is very clear that you do not just want people to read what is there in the
University system and regurgitate it but what you want is a kind of young civil
servant to whom you can train later on but she or he must show aptitude for
governance and governance now is not just a question of hitting somebody on the
head or regulating him. Governance will now be a question of networking of
championing reform, of building up institutions, which will solve problems. Now
those issues then mean that you need a different kind of Civil Servant. In the world
over this is happening. And the kind of exam which we have now, came from
England is no longer there in England because they have moved in a very big way to
management and other subjects but in France which the Prime Minister apparently
says that the Home Ministry would like to copy, is a very good idea. What are the
things they are looking for? They are looking for people who have an
understanding of rights of laws of the emerging environmental scarcities of the
ability to network, to be able to manage things together, to become more powerful
by giving away powers but by coordinating the ability to use technology. There are
some people whose brain is developed in such a way that they are not
technologically savvy. Now that is not the kind of person you want in the Civil
Servant of tomorrow. You can always train her or him in Microsoft or whatever E-
mail that whether the person’s mind left side or right side is developed in a
particular way is important. So these are the things that we said. But then we also
said and people/policemen like Mr. Rebeiro and other have been saying it. Look it
is not just important to have the best youngsters. In any case you get very good
youngsters. I am totally convinced of that. In a three lac people who apply, even if
you have the worst possible examinations system, if you take 200 people, they will be
extraordinary. Anyone of you who has come to the higher service as Civil Services
and extraordinary persons as far as I am concerned, a former Vice Chancellor of
the JNU one lac kids applied at a 1000 and I know what my girls and boys were like
and I mean they have the ability to stand up with the best in the world. The issue is
what do you do with them? And so these kinds of issues. We know that the best
struggler remain the best but what about the average. It becomes 30. So you start
learning to compromise. Now the question is, the management issue is that you
don’t get into all of this. We had a set of policies which have been released in
summary form, but I am sure the report will be available some day and the others
have talked about it, Mr Hota and others will have said. After ten years, look at the
person. Let them specialized broadly on this. Some policemen have been very
angry on me that ‘aap bolte hein we are not IAS Officers’. That is not that I said.
What the Committee said was ‘some kinds of people will have a security orientation.
Others will believe in numbers. Others love to see a University. So put them in
special area, health, education. So decide on a broad kind of specialization after ten
years. Then we said give them the best training in the world. But let them have to
face the music they have to perform. They cannot live by being the authority of
‘Saheb’. Having been to the Secretary to the Government I know what does it
means? Carry on in the emerging period. Let them realize that they have to earn
through networking, through resourcing. Let there be a full review of the persons
by his peer group, by his superior, which has done his confidential report, raise a
proposal, which is very controversial. In the Press we said ‘the public should also be
able to evaluate an officer’. Any SP will put some smugglers in jail and those
brokers will organize a negative protest. It need not be like that. In universities
where the students evaluate their teachers, Mr. Khanna said ‘you can have a group
of senior, who are in the community, who see to it that if there is public evaluation,
it is done in a fair manner’. But you must get feed back on what the officer is all
about. But then there are simpler things which you should be doing in any case.
How can you transfer people? I am so happy that the Prime Minister/Home
Minister have written to the Chief Ministers saying that you cannot do arbitrary
transfers just as you cannot make arbitrary appointments in Public Sector Agencies.
When I was Power Minister I was so fed up with pressures that I set a committee
under a member of Planning Commission, which would advise me on appointments
in PSUs. And that is the structure we put in the Electricity Regulatory Body. So we
made a proposal that if you make an unusual transfer, say less than three years, the
Minister should be required to put on file the note that what is the public interest
which required that this man should be transferred. Because one should do that
and then you will have much less of this arbitrary business that a young man stands
up to somebody in authority. All of these issues are extremely important and in the
next round we must do them.
We are suggesting that the French System should be used and I had been a
visiting professor in politics which is like the Lal Bahadur Shastri Academy or your
Academy at Hyderabad. I think the French system to the extent says involve law,
involve environment, involve technology, management strategies. But France is a
different country from India. It is a highly centralized State. Everybody’s
responsibilities and everybody’s rights are laid down. We are a different country.
They take people after school. But their schooling and our schooling is different.
The point which a psychologist made to the Alagh Committee that for the Army you
might take youngsters but for the Civil Service you will need persons who are
somewhat matured, is a valid point. Change your course-curriculum, see to it that
they are in those skills which you require and the Universities will also help them in
picking them up and choose the best input by training institutions, which should be
globally competitive. These are the kinds of changes that we have to get through.
Now the other question is technology. Technology, the real question in the next
round, we have very good mission oriented technology. We provide enough
resources and supported our scientists have done marvelously well. Whenever we
say this go and do it here is the money, they will do it. That is mission orientation.
That is not the nature of technology today. Technology today is the question of
integrating different skills in a way such that you solve field-oriented problems.
And the technology can do it in a way such that it could not do 20 years ago. I did
not have that choice when I joined Planning Commission. You do have that choice
right now. You can use technology to solve day-to-day problems. This is a question
of networking because the new technology is very friendly to each other.
Computerization, modern communication, modern materials – they reinforce each
other. But that is only possible when you know how to put them together to solve
the problem. Also they are scaled neutral. There is no reason why the most
advanced technologies in the world cannot be there at the level of a Thana. You can
really adjust modern technology but it needs a different mindset. And I would
suggest that the Bureau of Police Research and Development have given some more
thought to this in my published lecture. Does a project on ‘how does one set up
these systems so that some of the impending problems we know we are going to face
in security regime are solved’.
Another problem that I see is that as we go through globalization the rules are
going to change and the law is going to change. For the price fixation, you have rules
which do not worry about the actual cost. In fact any pricing rule which says that the
actual cost of a product is to be given is now a bad rule because what it is doing is
protecting an inefficient person. So you try to build an inefficiency pricing. If somebody
does that in an honest way and you turn back to him and say you are not fair because
your mindset is 20 years earlier then you are not understanding the nature of the de-
regulation that we are doing. So you have to be very fast and need very high level of
expertise not just technology.
Life is going to be very bad for you. Scarcity of energy in land and water is going
to be a part of your regime in way such that was in my regime. You will not be able to
live off the land. As Police and as Civil Service you will have to learn with those
scarcities. The legal environment is going to be very very different. The rights of the
individuals are going to be very important. You will have to protect them. The rights of
the minorities, the rights of the women, the rights of the dalits, the rights of the adivasis
and that is going to be the responsibility of the police and it is going to be a part of law.
Environmental law is coming on its own. You cannot just go and cut a tree. I
cannot cut the trees I have planted because the Forest Officer tells me that you are
breaking Forest Law. You will have to be very sensitive to these kinds of requirements.
What are the attributes required from the system, which would include amongst
others :
A sense of vision and direction in which Indian socio-polity is moving including its very
diverse cultural plurality.
An ability to appreciate some of the real scarcities that are emerging as also the strengths
of civil society. The fact that most of us are law abiding, good people, to cope with them
up, these kinds of strengths we must build up. These are important as India is still going
in a developmental phase. We are going from point 4 to third. We have to become third.
We are in a critical phase in the world history. If we good now, we will become number
six. We will have been a history. The world has changed. When I was a member of the
Planning Commission, the Prime Minister said do whatever you want to do. Today you
have got a 116 billion dollars. You are fitting at the doors of greatness.
You are also saying that you going to do something different of a plural society. Great
cultures always think of pluralistic development going back into the history. So China
and India cannot be the small culture. Otherwise we will become the third biggest in the
world but we will have no message to give. The inheritance taken from Gandhi and
Budha must have to be filled. You must have an ability to interface with the modern
technology which provide a cutting edge to many solutions. At higher levels of the
system there must be an ability to network with Panchayats, with NGOs, with
cooperatives, and professionals and people’s organistions. There has to be a sense
rugged professionalism the heart of a good policeman, persistence and talkedness in
pursuit of objectives and an urge to champion beneficial change. The energy to pursue
such objectives, a sense of fair play of honesty of political and systenic support, a
compassion to the poor who will be the victim of marketization. But we have to take care
of them.
Above all a commitment to India as it was thought of by its founding fathers.
So these are the messages that I have to give. There are many sad stories I could
have talked about but I am an optimistic kind of a writer and with the Government whose
objectives I show fully I want to end with an optimistic note.
Thank you very much.

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Can National action plan on climate offer the solution?

Though the National Action Plan on Climate Change document details objectives, strategies, plans of action, timelines,  and monitoring and evaluation criteria, of the eight missions, some experts believe that its implementation is getting  delayed

GROWING INTERNATIONAL pressure to cut down its overall greenhouse gas emissions led India to come up with a roadmap detailing ways and means to mitigate the effects of climate change. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) was released in June 2008, a year after it was announced.
The action plan addresses eight specific areas, including the optimum utili sation of solar energy instead of fossil fuels like coal in the national energy grid.

Using recycled materials and designing buildings which are more airy and use solar energy, is also part of the action plan. Tapping solar energy for power generation is a highlight of the action plan.

The national action plan aims that by 2017, most of the households in urban areas, industries and commercial establishments should start utilising solar power. Through solar power, the country would bring down its dependence on fossil fuel energy sources like thermal power.

Another area highlighted in the NAPCC is promoting energy efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, along with bringing down electricity consumption in residential and commercial areas. Estimates are that in a typical commercial building in India, around 60 per cent of total electricity is consumed for lighting, 32 per cent for space conditioning, and 8 per cent for refrigeration. Promoting the use of public transport over personal vehicles is also underlined in the NAPCC.

Another area highlighted is providing adequate water for all through the efficient use of this crucial resource. India wants 20 per cent improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures to deal with water scarcity as result of climate change.

One of the worst hit due to climate change is the Himalayan Ecosystem, including glaciers. With increase in temperatures, glaciers have started melting.This has set alarm bells ringing in coastal areas which could get submerged.Sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem is a highlight of the NAPCC.

Afforestation is also one of the eight NAPCC missions.

The Centre proposes to plant trees in six million hectare of degraded forest land. Trees provide oxygen and taken in CO2.

In the area of agriculture, the national action plan aims to support climate adaptation in the sector, through the development of climate-resilient crops, and expansion of weather insurance mechanisms. The last of the eight missions under the NAPCC emphasises gaining better understanding of climate science, the impacts of climate change, and the challenges that lie ahead.


The NAPCC received a mixed response. Some find in it India's answer to the growing pressure on developing countries to accept binding emission norms. But a criticism is that it lacks urgency.
According to the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), the action plan is "fairly comprehensive". But the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People has said the NAPCC lacks urgency and the equity perspective.

The organisation has criticised the Water Mission, saying attempts to push for more big dams, irrigation projects, hydro-power projects, and interlinking of rivers will prove to be futile.

The government, on the other hand, is sanguine about the long-term impact of the eight missions under the NAPCC, and has announced that necessary funds would be available to them.

Though the NAPCC document details objectives, strategies, plans of action, timelines, and monitoring and evaluation criteria, of the eight missions, some experts believe that its implementation is getting delayed.

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Drinking

The infamous Badger LiqourImage by jremsikjr via Flickr
“Drinking is responsible for many social evils. To solve most of our social problems, prohibition should be enforced in the country.” Give arguments For and Against this view.

The Directive Principles of the State Policy provide that the State should strive to take steps to enforce prohibition in the country. But this may be the only Directive Principle which most of the State governments have not implemented. The reason is that a very significant volume of State revenues is made up of State Excise Duty, coming mainly from the sale of liquor. In most of the States, State Excise Duty contributes 20 to 30 per cent of the total State revenues and is the second largest contributor to their revenues. On the other hand, one school of thought believes that it is the increasing consumption of liquor in Indian society that is responsible for many social crimes and evils.

Arguments For the View
(a) The framers of the Constitution were extremely influenced by the Gandhian views about prohibition. The views of the framers of the Constitution must be honoured by enforcing prohibition.

(b) If a State like Gujarat can survive financially despite the loss of State Excise revenue, any other State can do so. It is a matter of political and bureaucratic will and nothing else.

(c) Many social evils like wife beating, eve teasing, rapes and murders prevail in Indian society mainly because of liquor. Most of the road accidents occur because the drivers of the concerned vehicles are under the influence of liquor at the time of accident. Hence, there is an urgent need for prohibition.

(d) Drinking results in reduction in the disposable income of the low-income groups and the sum that could be spent on nutrition and health care of the entire family is spent on drinking by one member of the family. The ill effects of drinking also affect the health of the drinkers later in their lives. Hence, social cost  in terms of deterioration of public health may be much higher than the revenues earned.

Arguments Against the View
(a) The revenue earned from sale of liquor is spent on social sector like education, health, housing, drinking water and sanitation.

(b) The experiment of prohibition in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana  failed miserably and these States had to lift prohibition. When prohibition was unsuccessful in these States it may not succeed in others.

(c) Gujarat has enforced prohibition but it cannot be said that there are no rapes, murders,  road accidents etc. in that State.

(d) By stopping the sale of liquor the government would indirectly be encouraging the availability and sale of illicit liquor. This will result in loss of revenue to the government, on the one hand, without any expected benefits of prohibition, on the other.

(e) Why should a moderate and sensible drinker be deprived of his drinks just because of some excessive drinkers in the society?


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How Quattrocchi walked free

Quattrocchi has been covered widely in the med...

The manner in which investigations and prosecutions in the Bofors case were consistently and spectacularly bungled is proof enough that whoever took the Bofors money is supremely powerful.
Over the last two decades, there was always someone in the CBI, the courts, the law ministry who was batting for the accused rather than the government. Somehow, Ottavio Quattrocchi always managed to be a step ahead of our law enforcement agencies. And despite the sound and fury in the media and in the Parliament, the suave Italian businessman has ended up laughing all the way to the bank.
Quattrocchi's final triumph came on Tuesday when the Solicitor General announced that the Indian government planned to withdraw all cases against him. Quattrocchi has been let off even though many legal experts considered his involvement in the Bofors scam to be an open and shut case. Not because of the investigative skills of our CBI but because the Swedish government, the Swiss courts and investigative journalist Chitra Subramaniam had provided a wealth of documentary evidence against him. In how many corruption cases can you actually succeed in finding out the number and name of the owner of the bank account into which the money was paid? All this evidence was sufficient for Interpol and the Swiss and British courts, but not the Indian authorities. 
Here is a brief run-down of the cover-up:
Though the scam came to light in 1987, no FIR was registered as long as Rajiv Gandhi's government was in power. The FIR was registered only in 1990 during the Janata Dal regime and a letter rogatory sent to Swiss and Swedish authorities. 
In November 1990 during the Congress-supported Chandrashekhar government, the CBI moved court to quash the FIR on the ground that it did not disclose any offence.
In 1993, then foreign minister Madhav Sinh Solanki wrote an aide memoir to the Swiss authorities urging that the case be closed and no documents sent to India. Solanki had to resign following the leak of the memoir.
In 1993, the Swiss authorities confirmed Quattrocchi's name as the beneficiary of the kickbacks from Bofors, but the CBI did not seize his passport immediately. Instead it waited 72 hours by which time Quattrocchi had fled India.
The Delhi High Court held that the Swiss documents were not properly authenticated, on the ground that they were not original documents but photocopies. The court took the curious position that because of this no offence against the accused could not be made out. During Manmohan Singh's first tenure, the law ministry advised the CBI not to appeal against the court's erroneous order.


In 2004, the Delhi High Court held in another judgment that no allegations could be proved against public servants accused in the case. The High Court came to this conclusion without a trial. The law ministry once again advised the CBI not to appeal in the Supreme Court.
In 2006, the law ministry secretly dispatched an officer to UK to inform the Crown Prosecution that no case was made out against Quattrocchi and the two erroneous High Court orders were cited to establish this. The law ministry's move was to facilitate Quattrocchi to defreeze his bank accounts and withdraw the alleged Bofors bribe money. By the time the news leaked and the Supreme Court ordered that efforts be made to re-freeze Quattrocchi's bank accounts, the Rs 23 crore in bank account had been spirited away.

In 2007, Quattrocchi was detained in Argentina because of an Interpol Red Corner Notice pending against him. The CBI flew to Argentina, brandishing the judgments of the High Court, which the government had declined to appeal against, to facilitate his release from prison. Incidentally, the automatic appeal was also withdrawn by the law ministry, without even the token formality of consulting the CBI.
The Bofors story has been popping up in the media at regular intervals for over 20 years. The rights and wrongs of the case are lost on the new generation, some of whom were born after the Swedish Radio first broke the story back in April 1987. With the matter dragging on endlessly, indignation over bribery in the Bofors purchase has somewhat eroded. One defence put forward is that during Kargil conflict it was established that the Bofors gun at any rate was first class. Others try to deflect the issue by pointing out that the total amount of the bribes, Rs 64 crore, was chicken feed by today's standards of corruption. Some even argue, falsely, that more money was in fact probably spent on investigations in the case. A few of those who have been at the forefront in pressing the Bofors corruption charges, such as V P Singh and Ram Jethmalani, did a volte face when it suited their political 
 interests.
 The Bofors case illustrates that Indian democracy has yet to mature to the level where the law is blind and applies in the same manner to one and all. In India those in high places know how to work the system to their advantage, even if it takes more than two decades to complete the process.

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